Local Lead Indicators Continue Rise
By Don Bauder
December 2, 2009
The lead indicators of the San Diego economy, compiled by Alan Gin of the University of San Diego, continued rising in October to 103.7, up from 103.4 in September and 102.5 in August. They have been up every month beginning in March, but they are below the 105.7 of January and the 144.2 of March of 2007. In October, building permits, consumer confidence and the national economy moved in positive directions, while initial unemployment claims, stock prices and help wanted advertising moved in unfavorable directions.
It is a good sign, I admit that.
But I am very skeptical that we are moving out of the Great Recession.
I would hope that our state, and all the subdivisions, would stop using accounting gimmicks (Hello Mayor Sanders) to balance the budget and do what needs to be done-then I would have hope.
Right now I do not have hope, and no reason to think anything is going to change.
Response to post #1: What one has to sort out -- on the national and local level -- is how much of the improvement in lead indicators is a result of the massive liquidity (mainly near-zero interest rates) and the fiscal stimulus programs, and how much is real economic activity. Best, Don Bauder
Democracy ended in this country with the creation of the Federal Reserve and the Federal Income Tax. From that point on this country, literally, has been playing a game of Monopoly.
Response to post #3: I disagree on both your points. Admittedly, the Fed has done a lot of questionable things (for example, it refuses to open up its books to citizens, and failed to foresee the current tsunami). But on balance, we are better off with an independent Fed. As to the income tax, I believe it was a good move. Somebody has to pay for government services. I also believe it should be more progressive than it currently is. Best, Don Bauder
Response to post #4: Right On Don!
Republicans are still practicing their paramount cultural values with lies of mass destruction, hatemongering and fearmongering, and cannot be relied on to help America recover at all from their never-ending Bush-GOP era of betrayals.
It's time for true American Patriots to help Obama restore the Land of Opportunity once again, rebuilding America after eight+ years of GOP betrayals.
Re #2:
It is difficult to reconcile rising leading indicators in the short run with the now-vacant local storefronts in so many places.
If I remember right, it was during the Depression that some of my elders learned the fine art of making distilled spirits from a variety of plant products as a family-run micro-enterprise.
#4
The Fed, with the tax code, have taken this country on a ride. The depression, the crap we're going through now, is all stemming from the Fed. Oh, blame the Republicans all you want. But both parties benefit from paper money being cranked out like its just 'endless'.
I love how the Democrats blame this all on the Republicans. I blame it both parties for writing checks we just can't afford to float anymore. Your grandkids will be paying for this debt that both Reagan and now Obama, and LBJ before them, had saddled on them. If I were the Democrats I would outlaw abortion RIGHT NOW, or, let in millions of more illegals. We're going to start running out of people to tax.
Response to post #5: In my opinion, the decision to send more troops to Afghanistan does not help. We should get out of there. Best, Don Bauder
Response to post #6: Did your ancestors get rich in the process? Or did they get caught? Best, Don Bauder
Response to post #7: You can certainly say that neither party is a guardian of the nation's purse. Best, Don Bauder
If I were the Democrats I would outlaw abortion RIGHT NOW, or, let in millions of more illegals. We're going to start running out of people to tax.
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Illegals don't pay taxes for the most part. Each illegal alien family with children receives an annual $5,000 direct cash payment from the federal government in the form of the earned income tax credit. Also, the Calworks program establishes a minimum $3,800 per month income level for employed illegal aliens with US born children. If an illegal earns $1,800 per month washing dishes or cleaning toilets at an Evans or Bartell family hotel, California steps into the breach and provides the immigrant with a $2,000 per month cash payment or whatever it takes to bring the monthly income up to $3,800. Without this subsidy the illegal could not come to California and employers would face the hassle of having to hire high school and college students to perform menial low paid work. It is common for a fast food restaurant to employ as many as 75 illegals, most on a part-time basis. Employees of a single fast food restaurant location in California are receiving as much as $150,000 per month in Calworks benefits. This situation exists with restaurants, car washes, landscapers, janitorial vendors, and every other business that employs illegals. Children of illegals born at the county hospital cost the county on average $17,000 each and most Hispanic families in San Diego have at least 4 children. The cost of providing a free public education at $7,000 per year per child to a family with four children is staggering. Immigrants are financially raping California.
Response to post #8: First, we must get out of Iraq immediately, the republican military-industrial establishment sent American Heroes and Patriots to die to satisfy GOP greed and lust for imperial power, and it is the worst betrayal since the Tories betrayed America during the 18th century.
The reality is that as long as congressional republicans continue to overthrow American Democracy, as long as the republican controlled Supreme Court continues to overthrow the Rule of Law, and as long as the GOP propaganda machine keeps winning with their Lies of Mass Destruction, hatemongering and fear mongering then we must keep fighting like hell to protect our Rights as American citizens.
Response to post #12: I can't vouch for those numbers you cite. Best, Don Bauder
Response to post #12: Do our international adventures, particularly Iraq and Afghanistan, represent imperialism? Good question. Best, Don Bauder
Response to post #12: I can't vouch for those numbers you cite. Best, Don Bauder
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I'm not surprised. You're totally uniformed on the issue.
I wish there were some way to block certain responses. I believe that, for example, Anon92107 ardently feels they are doing us all a service with their opinion. However, these opinions, valid though they may or may not be, are frequently off-topic. These opinions would be more useful and conducive to further consideration, if the poster would get a blog, and post there.
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